The Complete Guide to FRED Economic Data in 2026: From Fed Funds to GDP
By Annie
The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis maintains something quietly remarkable: a database of over 800,000 economic time series covering everything from unemployment rates to butterfly populations (yes, really). It's called FRED — Federal Reserve Economic Data — and it's one of the most valuable free resources in all of finance.
But here's the problem: 800,000 series is about 799,950 too many for most people. Which ones actually matter? Which ones move markets? Which ones tell you something about where the economy is heading versus where it's been?
This is the guide I wish existed when I started using FRED. No jargon. No PhD required. Just the practical stuff: which indicators to watch, how to access them, and what they're actually telling you.
What FRED actually is
FRED stands for Federal Reserve Economic Data. It's maintained by the St. Louis Fed, one of the twelve regional Federal Reserve banks. The database aggregates economic data from:
- The Federal Reserve itself (interest rates, money supply, bank lending)
- Other government agencies (BLS employment data, Census retail sales, BEA GDP)
- International organizations (OECD, IMF, World Bank)
- Private sources (Moody's credit spreads, University of Michigan sentiment surveys)
Every series has:
- A unique series ID (like "DGS10" for the 10-year Treasury yield)
- Historical data (often going back decades, sometimes a century)
- Metadata (units, frequency, source, seasonal adjustment)
- Regular updates (daily, weekly, monthly, or quarterly depending on the series)
And it's all completely free. No account required for basic access, generous API rate limits, and well-maintained documentation.
Why FRED matters for investors and analysts
If you're trying to make investment decisions, build financial models, or just understand what the hell is happening in the economy, FRED is essential because:
1. It's the source of truth. When CNBC says "the Fed funds rate," they're getting it from FRED. When Bloomberg charts the yield curve, same source. This is where the data comes from.
2. It's historical. Want to see what happened to unemployment during the 2008 financial crisis? FRED has it. Want to compare this recession to the 1980s? FRED has it. Long-term context is how you avoid recency bias.
3. It's cross-sectional. You can compare manufacturing output to retail sales to housing starts to inflation, all from one source with consistent methodology. That's rare.
4. It's timely. Many series update daily (yields, rates, spreads) or within days of release (employment, CPI, GDP). You're getting the same data the Fed uses to make policy decisions.
5. It's free. Did I mention it's free? Because it's free.
The 20 FRED series that actually matter
Out of 800,000 series, here are the 20 I check regularly — the ones that move markets, inform Fed policy, or tell you something important about the economy's trajectory.
### Interest Rates and Monetary Policy
1. EFFR — Effective Federal Funds Rate
Series ID: `EFFR`
What it is: The actual average interest rate banks charge each other for overnight loans. This is the rate that the Fed targets and adjusts to control the economy. When the Fed "raises rates," this is what they're moving.
Why it matters: It's the anchor for all other interest rates in the economy. Mortgages, corporate loans, savings account yields — everything moves relative to this.
Current reading: Check EFFR on kibble.shop →
2. DGS10 — 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate
Series ID: `DGS10`
What it is: The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds.
Why it matters: The 10-year yield is the benchmark for long-term interest rates. Mortgages, corporate bond yields, and stock valuations all reference it. It reflects market expectations for growth and inflation over the next decade.
Current reading: Check DGS10 on kibble.shop →
3. DGS2 — 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate
Series ID: `DGS2`
What it is: The yield on 2-year US Treasury bonds.
Why it matters: The 2-year closely tracks Fed policy expectations. If investors think the Fed will cut rates soon, the 2-year yield falls. It's more sensitive to monetary policy than the 10-year.
Current reading: Check DGS2 on kibble.shop →
4. T10Y2Y — 10-Year Treasury Minus 2-Year Treasury Yield Spread
Series ID: `T10Y2Y`
What it is: The difference between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields. When this goes negative, the yield curve is "inverted."
Why it matters: Yield curve inversions have preceded every US recession since the 1960s. It's one of the most reliable recession predictors we have. When the bond market is willing to accept lower yields for lending long-term than short-term, it's signaling that they expect the economy to weaken and the Fed to eventually cut rates.
Current reading: Check the yield curve spread →
5. MORTGAGE30US — 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average
Series ID: `MORTGAGE30US`
What it is: The national average for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.
Why it matters: Mortgage rates drive housing affordability, which affects everything from home prices to consumer spending to construction jobs. When mortgage rates spike (like they did in 2023-2024), housing markets freeze.
Current reading: Check MORTGAGE30US →
### Inflation and Prices
6. CPIAUCSL — Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers
Series ID: `CPIAUCSL`
What it is: The CPI — the most widely followed measure of inflation. It tracks the prices of a basket of goods and services (food, housing, healthcare, transportation, etc.).
Why it matters: The Fed's mandate is to maintain price stability, which in practice means keeping CPI inflation around 2%. When CPI runs hot (like 2021-2023), the Fed hikes rates. When it cools, they cut.
Current reading: Check CPI data →
7. PCEPI — Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index
Series ID: `PCEPI`
What it is: Another inflation measure, but this one is the Fed's preferred gauge. It's broader than CPI and adjusts for changing consumer behavior.
Why it matters: When Fed Chair Jerome Powell talks about inflation, he's usually referring to PCE, not CPI. If you want to understand what the Fed is thinking, watch PCE.
Current reading: Check PCE →
8. T5YIE — 5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate
Series ID: `T5YIE`
What it is: The market's expectation for average inflation over the next 5 years, derived from comparing nominal and inflation-protected Treasuries (TIPS).
Why it matters: This tells you what bond investors expect inflation to be, not what it is today. If breakeven inflation is rising, the market is worried about future price pressures. If it's falling, deflationary fears are growing.
Current reading: Check breakeven inflation →
### Employment and Labor Market
9. UNRATE — Unemployment Rate
Series ID: `UNRATE`
What it is: The percentage of the labor force that is unemployed and actively seeking work.
Why it matters: Full employment is the other half of the Fed's mandate. The labor market is also a coincident indicator of economic health — when unemployment rises, recessions are often already underway.
Current reading: Check unemployment →
10. PAYEMS — Total Nonfarm Payrolls
Series ID: `PAYEMS`
What it is: The monthly change in total jobs (excluding farm workers). This is the "jobs report" number that moves markets on the first Friday of every month.
Why it matters: Job creation drives consumer spending, which is 70% of the economy. When job growth slows or turns negative, recession risk rises.
Current reading: Check payrolls →
11. ICSA — Initial Unemployment Claims
Series ID: `ICSA`
What it is: The number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time each week.
Why it matters: It's the most timely labor market indicator — updated weekly, not monthly. Rising claims signal layoffs are increasing, which is an early warning of economic weakness.
Current reading: Check jobless claims →
12. CIVPART — Labor Force Participation Rate
Series ID: `CIVPART`
What it is: The percentage of the adult population that is either working or actively looking for work.
Why it matters: The unemployment rate can be misleading if people drop out of the labor force entirely (they're no longer counted as "unemployed"). Participation rate tells you how engaged the population is with the job market.
Current reading: Check participation →
### Economic Growth and Output
13. GDP — Gross Domestic Product
Series ID: `GDP`
What it is: The total value of all goods and services produced in the US economy.
Why it matters: It's the broadest measure of economic activity. Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is the textbook definition of a recession (though the NBER uses a more nuanced definition).
Current reading: Check GDP →
14. INDPRO — Industrial Production Index
Series ID: `INDPRO`
What it is: A measure of output from manufacturing, mining, and utilities.
Why it matters: Manufacturing is a leading indicator of the broader economy. When industrial production falls, it often precedes a broader slowdown.
Current reading: Check industrial production →
15. RSXFS — Retail Sales
Series ID: `RSXFS`
What it is: Total sales at retail stores, restaurants, and online.
Why it matters: Consumer spending is 70% of GDP. Retail sales tell you whether consumers are still spending or pulling back.
Current reading: Check retail sales →
### Housing and Construction
16. HOUST — Housing Starts
Series ID: `HOUST`
What it is: The number of new residential construction projects started each month.
Why it matters: Housing starts are a leading indicator — they signal builder confidence in future demand. When starts fall, it often precedes broader economic weakness.
Current reading: Check housing starts →
17. CSUSHPISA — S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index
Series ID: `CSUSHPISA`
What it is: A measure of US home prices.
Why it matters: Home prices affect household wealth, consumer confidence, and spending. Rising home prices make homeowners feel richer and more likely to spend. Falling prices do the opposite.
Current reading: Check home prices →
### Credit and Financial Conditions
18. BAMLH0A0HYM2 — ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread
Series ID: `BAMLH0A0HYM2`
What it is: The yield spread between high-yield (junk) bonds and Treasuries.
Why it matters: Credit spreads widen when investors are worried about defaults and economic weakness. Narrow spreads signal confidence. This is a real-time fear gauge for the credit market.
Current reading: Check credit spreads →
19. DRTSCILM — Total Consumer Credit Outstanding
Series ID: `DRTSCILM`
What it is: The total amount of consumer debt (credit cards, auto loans, student loans — excludes mortgages).
Why it matters: Rising consumer credit can signal confidence and spending, but it can also signal stress if people are borrowing to make ends meet. Watch the trend.
Current reading: Check consumer credit →
### Sentiment and Confidence
20. UMCSENT — University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
Series ID: `UMCSENT`
What it is: A survey-based measure of consumer confidence.
Why it matters: Confident consumers spend more. Worried consumers pull back. Sentiment is a decent leading indicator of future spending behavior.
Current reading: Check consumer sentiment →
How to actually access FRED data
There are three main ways to get FRED data:
### 1. The FRED website (free, browser-based)
Visit fred.stlouisfed.org, search for a series by name or ID, and you'll get interactive charts and downloadable CSV files. It's functional but feels like a website from 2008 (because it basically is).
Good for: Quick lookups, one-off chart exports, exploring what series exist.
### 2. The FRED API (free, requires coding)
Register for a free API key at fred.stlouisfed.org/docs/api/, then make HTTP requests to pull data programmatically.
Example:
```bash
curl "https://api.stlouisfed.org/fred/series/observations?series_id=DGS10&api_key=YOUR_KEY&file_type=json"
```
Good for: Automation, backtesting, building dashboards, integrating with your own systems.
### 3. kibble.shop (free, designed for actual humans)
We pull the most important FRED series, add context and historical annotations, and make them easily comparable to other financial data. You can view charts, export CSVs, or hit our API — all without needing to know FRED's opaque series IDs.
Explore FRED data on kibble.shop →
Good for: Investors and analysts who want clean data without fighting FRED's interface.
How to read FRED data (what the columns mean)
Every FRED series page shows several pieces of metadata:
Units: What is being measured? Percent, index (where 100 = base year), millions of dollars, etc.
Frequency: How often is the data updated? Daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, annually.
Seasonal Adjustment: Many economic series have predictable seasonal patterns (e.g., retail sales spike in December). Seasonally adjusted (SA) series smooth out these patterns. Not seasonally adjusted (NSA) series show the raw data. Use SA for trend analysis.
Last Updated: When was the most recent data point added? Some series lag by weeks or months.
Source: Where did the data come from originally? (e.g., Bureau of Labor Statistics, Census Bureau, etc.)
How to interpret trends (not just levels)
Looking at a single data point in isolation is almost useless. What matters is:
Direction: Is the indicator rising, falling, or flat?
Rate of change: Is it accelerating or decelerating? A slowing rate of job growth (even if still positive) can signal trouble ahead.
Historical context: Is this reading high or low relative to history? Unemployment at 4% is very different depending on whether it was 3.5% last month (rising, bad) or 5% last month (falling, good).
Deviation from trend: Many indicators have long-term trends. GDP grows at about 2-3% annually in the US. If growth falls to 1%, that's below trend — even though it's still positive.
Revisions: Many economic indicators are revised after their initial release. The first estimate of GDP, for example, gets revised twice. Don't overreact to a single data point until revisions settle.
How to use FRED data in investment decisions
FRED isn't a trading signal. But it's essential context for almost every investment decision:
### For equity investors
- Watch the yield curve (T10Y2Y). Inversions have predicted every recession, and recessions are bad for stocks.
- Track unemployment (UNRATE) and jobless claims (ICSA). Rising unemployment = weakening consumer spending = earnings risk.
- Monitor credit spreads (BAMLH0A0HYM2). Widening spreads signal stress in corporate credit, which often precedes equity selloffs.
- Check retail sales (RSXFS). Consumer spending drives 70% of the economy. If sales are weakening, corporate earnings will follow.
### For fixed income investors
- Follow the Fed funds rate (EFFR) and the Fed's projections. It's the anchor for all bond yields.
- Watch breakeven inflation (T5YIE). If the market expects higher inflation, bond yields will rise (and prices will fall).
- Track credit spreads (BAMLH0A0HYM2). Tighter spreads = hunt for yield. Wider spreads = flight to safety.
### For macro traders
- All of it. But especially: GDP (growth), CPI/PCE (inflation), UNRATE (employment), yield curve (recession risk), credit spreads (financial stress).
### For real estate investors
- Mortgage rates (MORTGAGE30US) drive affordability and demand.
- Housing starts (HOUST) signal builder confidence and future supply.
- Home prices (CSUSHPISA) affect equity and refinancing opportunities.
What FRED doesn't tell you
FRED is incredibly comprehensive, but it has blind spots:
Market prices: FRED has Treasury yields and mortgage rates, but it doesn't have stock prices, individual corporate bond yields, or real-time market data. For that, you need market data providers (or kibble.shop's market data products).
Forward-looking expectations: FRED shows what has happened, not what the market expects to happen. For that, you need futures markets, analyst forecasts, or survey data (some of which is on FRED, but it's scattered).
Granularity: FRED has national and some regional data, but if you need city-level or company-specific data, you'll need other sources.
Alternative data: FRED doesn't have credit card spending, satellite imagery, web scraping, or other "alternative" data sources that hedge funds increasingly use.
The kibble.shop approach to FRED data
We love FRED. It's free, comprehensive, and well-maintained. But it's also a pain in the ass to use if you're not a data engineer.
So kibble.shop pulls the most important FRED series, cleans them, adds historical context, and makes them queryable alongside other financial data. You can:
- View clean dashboards without digging through series IDs
- Compare multiple indicators side-by-side
- Export to CSV or hit our API for programmatic access
- Get alerts when key indicators cross thresholds (coming soon)
It's free during early access. No credit card. No sales call. Just clean data.
Explore FRED data on kibble.shop →
The bottom line
FRED is one of the best free resources in all of finance. It's comprehensive, timely, and maintained by actual economists. But it's also overwhelming — 800,000 series is 799,980 too many for most people.
Focus on the 20 series above. They'll tell you 90% of what you need to know about the economy's direction. Learn to read trends, not just levels. And use FRED as context, not as a trading signal.
And if you'd rather not deal with FRED's 1990s-era interface, use kibble.shop. We've done the hard part. You just get the data.
— Annie 🐾
Explore 800,000+ FRED economic series, cleaned and ready to use, at kibble.shop — free during early access. Sign up and start analyzing.